Bloomberg, 17/08/2005
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Aug. 17 (Bloomberg) -- A villa
overlooking the Black Sea? Or a flat in the Bulgarian capital, Sofia?
If you happened to be vacationing in the area this year, you might
have noticed just how temptingly cheap all those properties for
sale are.
Now you can take a chance on the market without going to the trouble
of dealing with real-estate agents and lawyers. Several recent initial
public offerings in London have been designed to raise money for
the booming property market of Bulgaria. Some other share sales
were aimed at the Russian market.
The catch-up between property values in Western and Eastern Europe
isn't finished yet. Even as house-price bubbles burst in Western
Europe, emerging markets such as Bulgaria may be immune.
Rapidly modernizing economies, rising investment and asset prices,
and booming tourism, will keep property values climbing for years.
In the long term, Eastern Europe's real-estate boom may stall as
population growth wanes. Still, that's a long way off.
There is certainly no shortage of vehicles to put your money into.
In London, several new companies have come to the market in the
past few months raising funds to invest in Bulgaria.
Black Sea Property Fund Ltd. staged an IPO on London's Alternative
Investment Market in March, raising 50 million pounds ($90.6 million)
to invest in luxury holiday apartments in Bulgaria. It joined Bulgarian
Property Developments Plc, which has been acquiring land for development
in the country, which listed on the same market two months earlier.
Orchid Developments Group Ltd., a hotel and property development
company operating in Bulgaria, listed its shares in London last
month. Meanwhile, the Lewis Charles Sofia Property Fund, specializing
in developments in and around Sofia, also plans a London share sale.
It aims to raise 50 million pounds.
`Not Many Avenues'
Russia has also been attracting interest from investors wanting
to take a punt on Eastern European property.
This month, Raven Russia Ltd. raised 153 million pounds in an IPO
in London to invest in the Russian property market. That followed
the listing of Eastern Property Holdings Ltd. in Switzerland in
2003. That company's share sale produced 50 million Swiss francs
($39.9 million) to put into Russian real estate.
``There's been a lot of interest in this sector this year,'' said
Terry Olin, a spokesman for Eastern Property Holdings, in a telephone
interview. ``There are not many avenues for private investors to
get into this market.''
If the Bulgarian and Russian vehicles work, don't be surprised
to see more companies specializing in the rest of emerging Europe.
Each enterprise is tapping slightly different markets, yet all
of them are trying to take advantage of the same combination of
cheap prices and booming economies.
European Demand
Black Sea Property, for example, is serving the growing trend for
Europeans to buy real estate in other countries. ``Last year, 146,000
British people bought properties outside the U.K.,'' said Roger
Hornett, London-based manager of the fund's property holdings, in
a telephone interview.
``You can buy a two-bedroom luxury flat by the sea in Bulgaria
for 40,000 pounds, which is less than the average British house
has gone up in value by during the past two years. So we think there
is going to be big demand from foreigners for holiday properties
in the country.''
Still, just because something is cheap doesn't make it a sure bet.
The issue is whether the Russian and Eastern European property markets
can keep expanding.
Reliable figures on trends in property prices are hard to compile,
the U.K.'s Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors said in its
latest review of the market. There is little historical data and
not enough information comparing properties over time.
Communist Buildings
Moreover, much of the housing built under Communist central planning
was of such poor quality that it is practically worthless. Most
of it will have to be rebuilt.
``Despite little change in rents, investor demand in emerging Europe
is surging across the board,'' the institution said. ``The primary
driver is expectations for convergence in incomes over the medium
to longer term to Western European levels, which will facilitate
growth in rents.''
What kind of returns you might expect will vary. Hornett says the
Bulgarian market has risen about 40 percent in the past two years.
He predicts gains of at least 10 percent annually for the next three
years.
That may be too optimistic. Still, equity markets across Eastern
Europe remain strong. The Bulgarian stock market, for example, is
up 32 percent this year. Asset prices are rising fast, and property
is unlikely to be left out.
Economic Expansion
Growth is strong as well. This year, the Bulgarian economy may
expand 5 percent, according to a Bloomberg News survey of five economists
in August. Inflation is subdued and the government aims to join
the European Union by 2007 and to sign up for the euro by 2010.
There is little to make investors feel nervous.
In parts of Western Europe and the U.K., property prices have surged
because of historically low interest rates and rising incomes. It
looks like a bubble has developed. In Eastern Europe, real-estate
prices are being driven by rapid economic growth and the need to
replace low-quality housing. As people get richer, they spend more
money on living somewhere nicer. It may be decades before that process
is complete.
The boom in companies investing in markets such as Bulgaria isn't
just a passing fad. Money is there to be made over the next few
years -- and buying shares in a listed company is a lot less work
than buying a property yourself.
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